Estimating the Impact of the Age of Criminal Majority: Decomposing Multiple Treatments in a Regression Discontinuity Framework
Author: Michael Mueller-Smith
Author: Benjamin Pyle
Author: Caroline Walker
Abstract: This paper studies the impact of adult prosecution on recidivism and employment trajectories for adolescent, first-time felony defendants. We use extensive linked Criminal Justice Administrative Record System and socio-economic data from Wayne County, Michigan (Detroit). Using the discrete age of majority rule and a regression discontinuity design, we find that adult prosecution reduces future criminal charges over 5 years by 0.48 felony cases (? 20%) while also worsening labor market outcomes: 0.76 fewer employers (? 19%) and $674 fewer earnings (? 21%) per year. We develop a novel econometric framework that combines standard regression discontinuity methods with predictive machine learning models to identify mechanism-specific treatment effects that underpin the overall impact of adult prosecution. We leverage these estimates to consider four policy counterfactuals: (1) raising the age of majority, (2) increasing adult dismissals to match the juvenile disposition rates, (3) eliminating adult incarceration, and (4) expanding juvenile record sealing opportunities to teenage adult defendants. All four scenarios generate positive returns for government budgets. When accounting for impacts to defendants as well as victim costs borne by society stemming from increases in recidivism, we find positive social returns for juvenile record sealing expansions and dismissing marginal adult charges; raising the age of majority breaks even. Eliminating prison for first-time adult felony defendants, however, increases net social costs. Policymakers may still find this attractive if they are willing to value beneficiaries (taxpayers and defendants) slightly higher (124%) than potential victims.
Date: 2023/01
URL: https://ideas.repec.org//p/cen/wpaper/23-01.html
Reading Notes:
Objective: To understand the effects of being prosecuted as a juvenile versus an adult on later life outcomes using variation from date of offense around the age of majority
Importance: The age of criminal majority threshold may put similar teenage offenders on very different life paths based on how their case is adjudicated
The methodology used here may be useful for other settings to decompose multiple simultaneously changing mechanisms
Background: The age of majority was 17 during their sample (Detroit, Michigan 2011-2020).
The juvenile system is administered by the Circuit Court Family Division. Half of those assigned probation in the juvenile system are assigned out-of-home supervision.
Juveniles are eligible for record expungement 1 year after disposition or after turning 18
Data & Key Variables: CJARS - criminal records for Wayne County (Detroit), Michigan 2011-2020
Sample: first-time felony defendants aged 15-18 charged between 2011-2014
Earnings and employment from W2 records
Methodology: Regression discontinuity around age of majority
Machine learning (random forest) to predict juvenile and adult case dispositions and sentencing outcomes of similar defendants on either side of the age majority cutoff. This is then used to decompose conviction versus incarceration effects on recidivism and employment
Results: Being prosecuted as an adult decreases subsequent felony offenses, but also decreases earnings and increases poverty relative to being prosecuted as a juvenile
Decomposing this into conviction versus incarceration effects shows that adult convictions increase future felony charges and convictions, but incarceration decreases them. For earnings and employment, both conviction and incarceration have negative effects
Key Table/Figure: