The Social Safety Net and Mortality: Evidence from the Introduction of Welfare Payment Time Limits
The Social Safety Net and Mortality: Evidence from the Introduction of Welfare Payment Time Limits
Authors: Shirlee Lichtman-Sadot, David Slusky
Abstract: We ask whether a decline in the social safety net can contribute to despair mortality (from drugs, suicide, or alcohol liver disease). We exploit the introduction of lifetime time limits on the receipt of welfare benefits to disadvantaged households, a substantial component of the U.S. welfare reform, which began in the 1990s. Our findings suggest that exposure to time limits beginning in the age of parenthood increased despair mortality among low-educated females by 9.4 percent, corresponding to 7.7 percent of the low-educated female despair mortality increase between 1989 and 2017.
Seminar Notes
Venue
SOLE 2024
Objective
To understand the effect of welfare reform (1996 PRWORA) on deaths of despair
Importance
First paper to explore the role of the decreased generosity of the US social safety net on deaths of despair
Related paper by Dow et al (2020) looking at EITC. This paper looks at AFDC/TANF
Background
Rising deaths of despair - drug overdose, suicide, alcohol liver disease.
Supply factors played major role in drug overdose. Negative labor demand shocks also shown to be important
Major component of welfare reform - time limit of up to 5 years (TANF)
Data & Key Variables
CDC mortality restricted use file. ICD9/10 codes to identify deaths of despair.
Age 25-64, controls for sex, education
Methodology
Use variation in adoption of time limits 1997-2014. Also use variation within state-year units across age ranges.
Assume exposure to time limits only effect age of parenthood: 21-48 for women, 24-53 for men
Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood
Results
Low-educated female deaths of despair increased in response to the introduction of time limits by ~9%
No effect for male deaths despite large increased in overall deaths of despair over this time period - not correlated with the TANF time limits
Key Table/Figure
